Reasoning by analogy would be someone in 1900 thinking that the way to get faster transport was to breed stronger horses. You limit your imagination to a simple extension of what you already know. That is not how the world changes.
And that’s why conviction doesn’t necessarily mean certainty. Indeed, Musk emphasized to me that in the early years of both SpaceX and Tesla he had zero certainty that they would succeed. “In fact,” he said, “I thought the likeliest outcome was failure.” Now that’s an astonishing statement. But he insisted that all he knew when he started was that success was a possibility. The reason he plowed ahead was his strength of feeling that the possibility had to be pursued.
Dream big! Don’t focus on making money! Work for an idea that’s bigger than you are! Broaden your mind! Embrace thinking from outside disciplines! Expose yourself to the world’s most inspiring designs and designers! Make things as simple as they can be (and no simpler)! Immerse yourself in science and leading-edge technologies! Don’t be limited by what’s gone before! Play with radical outside-the-box future possibilities and keep playing until you find something really big that you believe in!